February XX, 2025
Dear Client,
We hope this letter finds you well. As part of our ongoing commitment to keeping you informed and prepared for market changes, we would like to provide you with an overview of the current U.S. trade war and its potential implications for Canadian investors.
Overview of the U.S. Trade War
On February 4th, the U.S. will initiate an unprecedented sweeping tariff strategy with major economic, geopolitical, and financial market implications. The U.S. will impose 10% tariffs on exports from China and 25% tariffs on exports from Canada and Mexico. Notably, Canadian energy exports will face a lower 10% tariff (1). In response, Prime Minister Trudeau announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods (2).
Economic Impact
The U.S. trade war introduces meaningful risks for Canada’s economy, creating uncertainty around growth, business investment, and market stability. Our framework for assessing Canada’s economic impact has focused on three key factors: the magnitude of the tariffs, the range of goods affected, and the duration of the tariffs. The Bank of Canada presented an illustrative scenario featuring a 25% permanent tariff on all U.S. imports, which could result in a -2.5% headwind to Canada’s GDP in the first year (3).
Short-Term Pressures and Longer-Term Adjustments
In the near term, tariffs will raise costs for Canadian businesses and consumers, particularly in industries dependent on U.S. trade. Over the longer term, if trade barriers persist, Canada’s economic structure will evolve, with some industries contracting and others benefiting from shifts in supply chains and policy incentives.
Investment Implications
For investors, trade uncertainty and market volatility will remain high, requiring disciplined risk management. Sectors most exposed to U.S. tariffs, particularly manufacturing and export-driven industries, face heightened risks. However, some firms may find ways to adapt supply chains, develop alternative markets, or take advantage of government incentives.
Conclusion
Navigating this environment requires a measured, long-term approach. While risks are front and center, economic and market adjustments will create pockets of opportunity as businesses reposition. Our approach remains focused on protecting capital while identifying areas of strength amid volatility.
We hope this letter provides you with valuable insights and reassures you of our commitment to managing your investments prudently. Should you have any questions or require further information, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Sincerely,
[Financial Advisor]